{
 "generated": "2026-10-23",
 "source": {
  "repo": "forensic-rca-calibration-study (private)",
  "commit": "e5564cc",
  "files_sha256_16": {
   "prod_cost/prod_cost_rows.json": "00d14600cf9746e3",
   "prod_cost/prod_cost_aggregates.json": "22d924c8ab762752",
   "prompt_caching/probe_results.json": "915c8bf2fcdba929",
   "prompt_caching/estimate.json": "752eece51c5a70f9",
   "prompt_caching/lf_turn_profile.json": "c4efae662cb3c584"
  },
  "ablation_cells": 188,
  "followup_claude_runs": 272,
  "total_claude_eval_runs": 460,
  "note": "values recomputed by gen_numbers.py; 'transcribed' blocks are copied from a lab notebook and flagged"
 },
 "prices_usd_per_mtok": {
  "opus46_useast5": {
   "input": 5.5,
   "output": 27.5,
   "cache_read": 0.55,
   "cache_write_5m": 6.875
  },
  "opus46_global": {
   "input": 5.0,
   "output": 25.0,
   "cache_read": 0.5,
   "cache_write_5m": 6.25
  },
  "opus55_global": {
   "input": 4.0,
   "output": 20.0,
   "cache_read": 0.2,
   "cache_write_5m": 5.0
  },
  "regional_multiplier": 1.1,
  "cache_read_discount_pct": 90,
  "cache_read_discount_opus55_pct": 95,
  "cache_read_multiplier_opus55": 0.05,
  "cache_read_multiplier_other": 0.1,
  "cache_write_5m_premium_pct": 25,
  "cache_write_1h_premium_pct": 100,
  "cache_write_5m_multiplier": 1.25,
  "cache_write_1h_multiplier": 2,
  "min_cacheable_tokens_opus46": 4096,
  "min_cacheable_tokens_opus55": 512,
  "max_breakpoints": 4,
  "breakpoints_used": 3,
  "lookback_blocks": 20,
  "ttl_default_minutes": 5,
  "ttl_extended_hours": 1
 },
 "eval_cells": {
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   "n_cells": 94,
   "read_share_pooled_pct": 88.6,
   "read_share_cell_median_pct": 88.3,
   "read_share_cell_min_pct": 61.8,
   "read_share_floor_pct": 50,
   "cells_read_share_below_50pct": 0,
   "cost_per_cell_actual_usd": 2.4,
   "cost_per_cell_uncached_usd": 9.51,
   "saving_pooled_pct": 74.8,
   "saving_pooled_rounded_pct": 75,
   "saving_cell_median_pct": 74.3,
   "saving_cell_min_pct": 44.5,
   "saving_cell_max_pct": 83.6,
   "write_share_of_actual_cost_pct": 55.2,
   "read_share_of_actual_cost_pct": 34.2,
   "output_share_of_actual_cost_pct": 10.5,
   "generations_per_cell_mean": 20.2,
   "total_actual_usd": 225.24,
   "total_uncached_usd": 894.22
  },
  "A55": {
   "n_cells": 94,
   "read_share_pooled_pct": 82.5,
   "read_share_cell_median_pct": 81.2,
   "read_share_cell_min_pct": 57.3,
   "read_share_floor_pct": 50,
   "cells_read_share_below_50pct": 0,
   "cost_per_cell_actual_usd": 1.58,
   "cost_per_cell_uncached_usd": 5.48,
   "saving_pooled_pct": 71.1,
   "saving_pooled_rounded_pct": 71,
   "saving_cell_median_pct": 69.3,
   "saving_cell_min_pct": 41.3,
   "saving_cell_max_pct": 81.3,
   "write_share_of_actual_cost_pct": 72.4,
   "read_share_of_actual_cost_pct": 13.7,
   "output_share_of_actual_cost_pct": 13.8,
   "generations_per_cell_mean": 15.7,
   "total_actual_usd": 148.97,
   "total_uncached_usd": 515.21
  },
  "read_share_gap_points": 6.1,
  "saving_gap_points": 3.7,
  "october_confirmation": {
   "runs_per_model": 136,
   "total_runs": 272,
   "opus55_global_read_share_pct": 79.4,
   "sonnet55_global_read_share_pct": 79.5,
   "gemini38_flash_implicit_read_share_pct": 82.1,
   "gemini4_argon_implicit_read_share_pct": 61.5
  },
  "description": "47 cases x 2 repetitions x 2 arms = 188 complete runs of the same agent on closed support cases, caching on in both arms. A45 = Opus 4.6 on us-east5. A55 = Opus 5.5 on the global endpoint. Uncached cost is a counterfactual: same tokens, all input at the full input rate."
 },
 "production_cost": {
  "window": "2026-08-27 to 2026-09-25 (30 days)",
  "window_days": 30,
  "production_executions": 196,
  "executions_with_agent_run": 141,
  "executions_deduplicated_no_agent": 55,
  "notes_posted": 136,
  "claude_legs_billed": 147,
  "claude_leg_usd_sum_30d_list": 1393.29,
  "claude_leg_usd_sum_30d_rounded": 1393,
  "current_config_runs": 64,
  "current_config_claude_legs": 66,
  "claude_leg_usd_mean_current_config": 10.6,
  "claude_leg_usd_median_current_config": 10.23,
  "claude_leg_input_tokens_mean_current_config_m": 1.87,
  "claude_leg_cache_read_tokens_in_window": 0,
  "current_config_notes": 62,
  "cost_per_note_mean_usd": 15.68,
  "cost_per_note_median_usd": 15.21,
  "cost_per_note_p90_usd": 21.27,
  "claude_share_of_run_cost_pct": 70.6,
  "langfuse_claude_cost_raw_usd": 738.5,
  "langfuse_generation_only_usd": 635.74,
  "langfuse_overstatement_pct": 16.2,
  "langfuse_post_cache_overstatement_pct_range": [
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   48
  ],
  "langfuse_double_bill_cache_read_pct": 110,
  "per_run_budget_cap_usd": 50,
  "per_run_budget_cap_turn": 34,
  "uncached_runs_hitting_cap": 3,
  "cached_runs_hitting_cap": 0,
  "gemini_implicit_cache_37_flash_pct": 79.9,
  "gemini_implicit_cache_36_flash_pct": 73.6,
  "prices_basis": "Vertex list price; no billing data, discounts or credits visible"
 },
 "pre_ship_meter": {
  "source": "Vertex Cloud Monitoring token counters, Opus 4.6 us-east5, whole project, 29 daily points",
  "input_tokens": 259046480,
  "cache_read_tokens": 30460,
  "cache_write_tokens": 24100,
  "input_tokens_m": 259.0,
  "input_tokens_m_rounded": 259,
  "cache_read_share_pct": 0.012,
  "cache_read_share_2dec_pct": 0.01,
  "days_with_cache_reads": [
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  ],
  "usd_at_list_all_project": 1483.66,
  "production_share_of_input_pct": 95.1
 },
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  "report_claim_executions_per_month": 217,
  "report_claim_saving_per_run_usd": 11.67,
  "report_claim_monthly_usd": 2532,
  "report_claim_monthly_k_usd": 2.5,
  "report_217_recomputable_from_committed_data": false,
  "report_217_note": "counted with gcloud at pull time; the committed 30-day rows list 209 executions, 196 production, 141 with an agent run",
  "replay_runs": 8,
  "replay_mean_uncached_usd": 14.45,
  "replay_mean_cached_usd": 2.78,
  "replay_saving_pct": 80.7,
  "replay_saving_rounded_pct": 81,
  "replay_over_eval_gap_pp": 5.9,
  "replay_mean_input_m": 2.57,
  "replay_over_measured_mean_ratio": 1.36,
  "digest_base_claude_month_usd": 1481,
  "digest_monthly_usd": 1196,
  "measured_saving_pct_eval_cells": 74.8,
  "low_usd_measured_30d_spend_x_measured_saving": 1042,
  "high_usd_current_config_projection_x_measured_saving": 1165,
  "high_usd_current_config_projection_base": 1558,
  "digest_style_high_usd": 1196,
  "resolved_monthly_saving_range_usd": [
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   1200.0
  ],
  "resolved_monthly_saving_range_k_usd": [
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   1.2
  ],
  "resolved_monthly_saving_central_usd": 1100.0,
  "resolved_monthly_saving_central_k_usd": 1.1
 },
 "post_ship_note": {
  "n": 1,
  "status": "TRANSCRIBED from the study notebook (raw trace not committed); shares and dollars recomputed here",
  "generations": 51,
  "cache_read_tokens": 4095168,
  "cache_creation_tokens": 227740,
  "uncached_tokens": 819,
  "output_tokens": 14444,
  "read_share_pct": 94.7,
  "cost_cached_usd": 4.22,
  "cost_uncached_usd": 24.18,
  "saving_pct": 83,
  "date": "2026-09-26"
 },
 "probes": {
  "records_total": 47,
  "growth_sequences": [
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    "model": "claude-opus-5-5",
    "endpoint": "global (default)",
    "prompt_tokens_h0": 1684,
    "steps_h1_h2_h3": [
     "miss",
     "stale",
     "full"
    ],
    "read_tokens": [
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     1710
    ],
    "cached_tokens_prev": [
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     1710
    ]
   },
   {
    "model": "claude-opus-5-5",
    "endpoint": "global",
    "prompt_tokens_h0": 1684,
    "steps_h1_h2_h3": [
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    ],
    "read_tokens": [
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    "cached_tokens_prev": [
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   },
   {
    "model": "claude-opus-4-6",
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    "prompt_tokens_h0": 4351,
    "steps_h1_h2_h3": [
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    ],
    "read_tokens": [
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     0
    ],
    "cached_tokens_prev": [
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     4375
    ]
   },
   {
    "model": "claude-opus-4-6",
    "endpoint": "us-east5",
    "prompt_tokens_h0": 4351,
    "steps_h1_h2_h3": [
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    ],
    "read_tokens": [
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    ],
    "cached_tokens_prev": [
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   }
  ],
  "identical_repeat_requests": 4,
  "identical_repeat_full_hits": 4,
  "legend": "full = read the whole prefix the previous request cached; stale = read an older, shorter entry; miss = read 0",
  "min_prefix_opus46_not_cached_tokens": 3535,
  "min_prefix_opus46_cached_tokens": 5475,
  "opus46_read_second_call_tokens": 5475,
  "opus55_write_tokens": 1043,
  "opus55_read_second_call_tokens": 1043,
  "probe_spend_usd": 0.65,
  "probe_token_range_k": [
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   4.4
  ],
  "agent_framework_two_request_tests": [
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    "model": "claude-opus-4-6",
    "region": "us-east5",
    "req1_write": 5948,
    "req2_read": 5948,
    "req2_write": 1171
   },
   {
    "model": "claude-opus-4-6",
    "region": "us-east5",
    "req1_write": 5948,
    "req2_read": 5948,
    "req2_write": 1171
   },
   {
    "model": "claude-opus-5-5",
    "region": "global",
    "req1_write": 7873,
    "req2_read": 0,
    "req2_write": 9506
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  ]
 },
 "agent_loop": {
  "first_turn_input_tokens": 22497,
  "system_prompt_tokens_k": 5.9,
  "tool_definitions_tokens_k": 4.3,
  "static_prefix_tokens_k": 10.2,
  "mcp_tools_count": 23,
  "initial_briefing_tokens_k": 12.3,
  "tokens_added_per_turn_mean": 4007,
  "cumulative_input_tokens_26_turns_m": 1.59,
  "cumulative_over_turn1_multiple": 70,
  "traced_claude_runs": 10,
  "turn_gap_seconds_median": 6.4,
  "turn_gap_seconds_max": 170.0,
  "turn_gaps_n": 309,
  "ttl_seconds": 300,
  "claude_requests_per_leg_mean_current_config": 26,
  "smoke_replay_k3_saving_opus55_pct": [
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   34.4
  ],
  "smoke_replay_k3_saving_opus55_rounded_pct": [
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   34
  ],
  "scatter_model_band_pct": [
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   55
  ],
  "scatter_pools_k": 3
 },
 "vendor_docs": [
  {
   "url": "https://docs.cloud.google.com/gemini-enterprise-agent-platform/models/partner-models/claude/prompt-caching",
   "accessed": "2026-09-29",
   "page_stamp": "Last updated 2026-09-28 UTC"
  },
  {
   "url": "https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/build-with-claude/prompt-caching",
   "accessed": "2026-09-29",
   "page_stamp": "none on page"
  },
  {
   "url": "https://cloud.google.com/vertex-ai/generative-ai/pricing",
   "accessed": "2026-09-29",
   "page_stamp": "none on page"
  },
  {
   "url": "https://docs.cloud.google.com/gemini-enterprise-agent-platform/models/context-cache/context-cache-overview",
   "accessed": "2026-09-29",
   "page_stamp": "Last updated 2026-09-29 UTC"
  }
 ],
 "literature": {
  "kwon_sosp_year": 2023
 },
 "excluded_from_release": {
  "internal_host_and_port": "Langfuse host:port and tunnel details. Internal system address; no reader needs it.",
  "gcp_project_id": "the production GCP project id. Identifies the account; not needed to reproduce.",
  "billing_account_id": "the billing account id in prod_cost/REPORT.md. Identifies the account; billing access was denied anyway.",
  "case_ids": "support case ids used as smoke and replay keys, and two case ids named in leg-failure notes. Customer-linked identifiers.",
  "worktree_and_branch_paths": "local scratchpad path, branch names and image digests from the ship record.",
  "internal_cloud_job_and_service_names": "Cloud Run job, API service and execution names."
 },
 "_figure_series": {
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